🏠 Is Today a Good Time for Real Estate? Here’s What June 2025 Shows Us

The real estate market in mid-2025 is undergoing a noticeable shift—and whether you're buying, selling, or investing, the landscape looks very different from the red-hot frenzy of the past few years. Inventory is rising, home prices are cooling in many areas, and high mortgage rates continue to weigh on affordability. For the first time in a while, buyers are regaining leverage, while sellers and builders are adjusting their expectations. In this post, we’ll break down what’s really happening in today’s housing market, what it means for you, and where things might be heading next.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

1. Shift Toward a Buyer’s Market

• A growing supply of homes is outweighing buyer demand—by about 500,000 extra listings in key Sunbelt cities like Miami, Austin, Phoenix, and Tampa. 

• Only 28% of homes are selling above asking price, down from 32% last year and far below the 2022 peak of 53%. 

• Buyers are gaining leverage: ~7% off list price now, incentivizing smart buyers to negotiate. 

2. Builder Confidence in Freefall

• The National Association of Home Builders confidence index dropped to a 2½-year low of 32 in June (from 34 in May), driven by high mortgage rates (~6.84%) and weak buyer sentiment. 

• Consequently, 37% of builders are cutting prices, averaging a 5% reduction, with many offering incentives like mortgage rate buydowns.

3. Mortgage Rates & Affordability

• Average 30-year mortgage rates remain high (~6.8–6.9%)—not far from a recent Bankrate benchmark of 6.94%.

• For homeowners, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) now carry steep 8.22% rates, making borrowing more expensive.

4. Price Trends & Regional Variations

• Nationally home price growth has slowed dramatically: 2% YoY in April—the lowest rate since 2012.

• Some metros (Florida, Texas, D.C.) are already experiencing negative YoY price growth, while others, especially in Northeast/Midwest, remain stable.

• Inventory is rising—a 4.4-month supply in April, up from 4.0 months a year ago—putting prices on a more balanced trajectory.

5. The Rise of Renting

• With buying less affordable, many are turning to renting—especially in suburbs of Austin, Nashville, Denver—creating new build-to-rent communities.

• Broken down: rents are dipping slightly (‑1.7% YoY in May), while rental supply booms .

6. Regional & External Pressures

• In Texas (e.g., Houston), home costs, property taxes, insurance premiums, and climate risks are making housing less affordable.

• Tariffs and economic uncertainty (like those stemming from trade policy) are also dampening buyer confidence.

7. Forecast: Cautious Optimism

• Experts expect a flat to slightly declining trend in home prices through 2025, with modest uptick in sales volume—~5.4 million homes forecasted to sell. Forecasts warn that recovery may not emerge until mid-2026, especially if rates decline or affordability improves.
• Forecasts warn that recovery may not emerge until mid-2026, especially if rates decline or affordability improves.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Bottom line: In June 2025, the U.S. housing market is leaning toward buyers. We’re seeing cooler sales, more inventory, and price reductions—resulting in better conditions for negotiators, but caution for sellers and builders. Recovery likely draws nearer to mid‑2026, pending any major rate shifts or policy interventions.